Asteroid 2024 YR4: Scientists Say the Risk of Impact with Earth is Now Extremely Low
Scientists from space agencies around the world have significantly lowered the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth. Initially, there were concerns that this space rock might hit our planet in 2032. However, recent calculations show the probability of impact is now well below 1%, meaning a dangerous collision is highly unlikely.
Even though the asteroid won’t hit Earth, it will pass extremely close, giving astronomers a rare chance to study it in detail. “This will still be a spectacularly close approach,” said Richard Moissl from the European Space Agency (ESA). He also added that the chances of impact are expected to drop even further, possibly to zero.
How Dangerous is Asteroid 2024 YR4?
First detected in December 2024, this asteroid measures between 40 and 90 meters wide. If it were to hit a city, it could cause massive destruction. By February 17, calculations showed a 1-in-32 chance of impact. However, further observations helped refine the asteroid’s path, lowering the risk to just 1-in-67. By February 24, NASA estimated the impact chance to be only 0.0039%, or 1-in-25,641, while ESA reported an even lower probability of 0.002%, or 1-in-50,000.
These numbers placed asteroid 2024 YR4 at level 0 on the Torino Scale, which measures asteroid threats. It had previously been rated a 3, meaning it was once considered a serious but low-probability risk. Now, it is classified as a harmless near-Earth object.
A Valuable Opportunity for Science
Although the danger has passed, experts say the asteroid’s close approach is still valuable for scientific research. Gareth Collins from Imperial College London pointed out that this event allows scientists to practice planetary defense strategies. It could also serve as a test case for future threats.
Space agencies, including NASA and ESA, were considering ways to deflect the asteroid, just in case. Despite the lower risk, some experts believe work on asteroid deflection should continue. “The risk has decreased, but we are still proceeding with our research,” said Niklas Voigt from German space company OHB.
Could the Asteroid Hit the Moon?
While Earth is safe, the Moon now faces a slightly higher risk of impact. Experts say the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the Moon have risen from 0.3% to 1.7%, and the possibility could increase further. Scientists are still studying what would happen if the asteroid were to strike the lunar surface.
What Happens Next?
The James Webb Space Telescope will soon observe asteroid 2024 YR4 in more detail. This will help experts better understand its size, composition, and exact trajectory. By April, the United Nations-backed Space Mission Planning Advisory Group will decide whether further action is needed.
Collins emphasized that this event has been a useful learning experience. He warned against becoming too complacent about asteroid threats: “We want to avoid a ‘cry wolf’ situation where the public stops taking these risks seriously.”
For now, Earth can breathe a sigh of relief, but scientists will continue monitoring the skies for any future threats.
